German Bundesliga Champion

[chriscol]

i very rarly post long time props, but with for game remaining, i really like to go for Bayern as German champ @ 6.5.

Situation is:
1. Bremen 68 pts +39 goals#
2. München 62 pts +32 goals

remaining games:

today
Bremen- Hamburg: should be home win for bremen, but local derby is making it dangerous, especially if you take in account that bremen is struggeling recently to score.

Köln- München: realatively easy away game for München:

prediction: worst case: bremen still 6 pts ahead of bayern.

next week:

München at home against Bremen: Theory: München home win reduces distance to 3 pts...boost for münchen..bremen starts thinking after they had up to 11 pts lead a month ago.

week after:

Bremen- Leverkusen: Tough home game for bremen against red hot leverkusen, which need points to secure uefa-cup or more.

Stuttgart- München: also tough for Bayern..dont over adjust for away game as almost a local derby with many bayern fans will travel..historically bayern had succes in stuttgart.
worst case..still 3 pts differnece...chances better for bayern win and bremen draw, which will be 1 pt diff

Last game...

bayern- Freiburg..easy home game for bayern, which also will boost their goal diff over bremen.

Rostock- bremen: very,very tough away game for bremen...it's a derby against a strong rostock team, especially at home...rostock will give everything to knock off bremen and if scenarion is right and we talk about 1 or 3 pts ahead then bremen is in a tough mentally situation.

i simply think, regarding the remaining games and situation Bayern at 6.5 is great value and worth a shot....we will see

 

[chriscol]

my scenario is still valid with both teams winning last weekend, but now you got 8 for munich to win it in most places (if you like you can hedge it if you take bremen +0.5 this week in asian lines)

 

[soccerbob]

chris- I always enjoy your analysis and predictions but I have to disagree with the hedging advice on the Werder Bremen- Bayern Munich match. If someone has Bayern Munich to win the league all you can really do is sit on it and root for them to win and close the gap. If you take Werder Bremen plus the 1/2 goal, you could lose that bet and still lose the league bet on Bayern as Bremen would still have a 3 point lead.

Hedging can be very good in certain spots but I don't feel that this is one those. I do like Bayern Munich and the over a bit.

 

[chriscol]

it's not a real hedge, but if you like bayern's chance
and f.e you put 1 unit on them to be champ to get 8 and 1 unit today on bremen
you are risking two:
in case of a bremen draw you have your money back, in case of a bayern win you still have a bet of risking 2 to get 8.
and in this case i expect odds on bayern to win champ will drop below 4 after this weekend, so you can still produce good value if you like them. but you are right it's no sure bet or something.